Before you go any further, make sure you know the difference.

Most business-critical transformation programs are built to drift.

Every delay in running an Independent Program Review is a bet that this time will be different. But the odds are brutal – and they don’t lie.

That might sound blunt. But after three decades working alongside senior teams – often in tough situations – it reflects a pattern we’ve seen time and time again.

At Mentor, roughly 95% of our work has involved helping organisations recover struggling programs.

And in most cases, the signs of trouble were there early. Not in hindsight – right from the start.

The team had already started work. First-cut plans were in place. Delivery had begun.

But the structure wasn’t right – and no one had paused to test it properly.

That’s why we created the Independent Program Review.

The Odds Are Brutal

In large, complex infrastructure programs, success is the exception – not the rule.

Our experience over more than three decades – and Bent Flyvbjerg’s extensive global research* – unequivocally both point to the same conclusion:

Roughly 90% of major infrastructure programs miss their targets.

Cost overruns. Delays. Benefit shortfalls. Reputational damage.

And yet, in most of those cases, the issues that caused failure were already present in the setup – just not surfaced early enough.

What Is an Independent Program Review?

An Independent Program Review – or IPR – is a short, sharp, senior-level intervention that examines whether a program is truly set up to succeed.

It’s the operational equivalent of financial due diligence.

It’s not about blame.

It’s not about compliance theatre.

It’s about giving experienced teams a moment of structured challenge – before momentum hardens assumptions into irreversible commitments.

A good IPR is not built on templates or theory.

It’s built on pattern recognition – developed over decades of real-world program salvage.

We’ve seen where programs break down, and we know what the early warning signs look like – no matter how polished the plan appears.

It focuses on what matters most:

· Leadership: Is there genuine authority and headroom to lead?

· Structure: Are roles, teams, and decision rights clear – and working?

· Resourcing: Are the right people genuinely committed – or just named?

· Execution credibility: Will this plan survive contact with real-world pressure?

It’s fast. It’s forensic. It’s grounded in lived experience.

When to Run One?

We’re not suggesting an IPR on day one.

But once a program is formed enough to be real – when people are in post, plans are written, and early workstreams are moving – it’s the ideal moment to pause and pressure-test.

Because once public commitments are made and delivery is rolling, even obvious course corrections become harder – technically, financially, and politically.

What a Good IPR Offers

A strong IPR:

· Surfaces pressure points early – before they become existential

· Applies pattern recognition built over decades of real-world recoveries – seeing what others miss, and calling out what won’t survive contact with delivery

· Cuts through hierarchy and optimism bias

· Delivers insight directly to the people who can act – without noise or spin

It’s not about second-guessing.

It’s about helping smart, capable teams avoid the trap of heading off at pace with a flawed structure.

Final Thought

Every delay in running an Independent Program Review is a bet that this time will be different. But the odds are brutal – and they don’t lie.

If you’re leading something that matters, this isn’t about slowing down.

It’s about building in confidence, resilience, and realism – before reality forces its way in.

Because ambition deserves every chance of success.

And experience helps make that possible.

*Professor Bent Flyvbjerg: ‘How Big Things Get Done’, published 2023

About the author

David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.

You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.