When everything is Amber, governance is screaming distress – and nobody’s listening.

Amber Is Everywhere – And That’s Not Reassuring

Look at any recent report on major government projects, and you’ll see the same thing: a flood of Amber ratings. Not Green (on track). Not Red (in real trouble). Just Amber.

The latest report from the Government’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority on public sector projects is a case in point.

• 163 of the 227 projects reviewed (72%) are rated Amber
• Amber projects are costed at £636bn, accounting for £76% of the total budgeted whole-life costs of all programs
• A large proportion of these will already be heading for red

Officially, Amber means “delivery is feasible”, but only if key issues are addressed – a euphemism for “delivery is not likely.”

But if we’re honest, many of those projects aren’t just facing issues – they’re already in trouble. Amber has become the polite way of saying: “We’re stuck, but we’re not ready to admit it.”

It’s a “get out of jail free” card that legitimises poor program management.

This isn’t just about the Public Sector: The Private Sector isn’t Immune

In total, Amber and Red public sector programs account for 84% of the total number of projects and 88% of the total costs.

For those operating in the private sector who think this couldn’t happen to them, you’re wrong!

These numbers are almost identical to our findings in the private sector, supported by Bent Flyvbjerg’s extensive research*, which shows that over 90% of projects come in late, over budget, or both.

But at least commercial pressure can sometimes force a reckoning in private sector programs. In the public sector, the cost of denial is borne by the taxpayer – and felt by the country.

Amber Has Become the Safe Option

No one likes declaring a project Red. It triggers alarms, embarrassment, questions, resets – and sometimes heads roll. So, instead, the system defaults to Amber.

• It’s the diplomatic answer
• It’s reputational cover
• It’s a safe place to hide

But when everything is Amber, nothing gets fixed. It becomes the background noise of program delivery – the universal placeholder for discomfort. And in that fog of Amber, the real signals get lost.

The Problem Isn’t the Projects – It’s the Governance

Here’s the deeper issue: this isn’t just a delivery problem – it’s a governance problem. The Amber phenomenon is a by-product of a system struggling to face the brutal truth.

Governance is intended to serve as an early warning system. But when the only acceptable rating is “not quite Red,” then we’ve built a system that actively avoids escalation – and normalises drift and complacency.

Is the IPA Truly Independent?

The Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) does important work – tracking, assuring, and supporting the UK’s biggest programs. But it sits within the government. It reports to the same system it monitors.

That makes true independence hard. If ratings carry political weight, even well-meaning oversight can be shaped by caution.

People don’t always lie – they just dress the pig up. But no matter how much you dress it, it’s still a pig. And everyone in the room knows it.

When Everything Is Amber, We Should Be Worried

Amber is meant to mean: “You’ve got time – but only if you act now.” Instead, it’s become the holding pattern for difficult truths.

• A status you can hold for years
• A delay tactic dressed as a rating
• A risk that gets managed through language, not leadership

Take just one project I’ve written extensively about – the Home Offices’ Emergency Services Network (ESN) program to replace the current emergency services communications network.

The program has been rated “red” for the last two years.

Prior to that, it was rated Amber for the previous nine years, with the notable exception of 2018, when it was declared Red for one year.

The team finally came clean and declared its Red status in 2022, which remains unchanged to this day.

So, What Needs to Change?

Treat Amber as a warning, not a comfort zone. It should prompt action – not serve as a long-term parking bay for problems.

Reward honesty – even when the truth hurts. Create space for delivery teams to surface problems without blame.

Make governance about delivery, not diplomacy.

If a project is in trouble, say so. Early. Clearly. Without. Spin.

Final Thought

If delivery confidence is going to mean anything, it has to start with telling the truth – especially when it’s uncomfortable.

Because when governance hides behind Amber, failure creeps in quietly – but lands with a tremendous thump that everyone hears.

What do you think?

Have you seen Amber used as a shield instead of a signal? Is there a better way to keep project reporting honest without triggering fear?

I’d love to hear your views, especially from those delivering or governing major programs.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

*Research by Bent Flyvbjerg, “How Big Things Get Done”, published in 2023.

 

About the author

David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.

You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.