Most transformation program budget blowouts don’t begin with a crisis

They begin quietly – while everything still looks under control. The deadlines are locked in, the budget’s approved, the slide deck looks reassuring.

But on the delivery side, the early warning signs are already there: deadlines that don’t reflect reality, capability gaps no one’s quite owned, and a delivery plan that’s never been properly tested against the people doing the actual work.

Nobody wants to speak up…

…especially once the completion dates have been promised to the board. Raising concerns can sound like negativity.

Or worse, like you’re not up to the job.

So people press on. They do their best. But they stop believing the plan is real.

This is the moment most programs start to drift. Not with a dramatic failure – but with small delays, quiet rework, and growing pressure that never quite gets surfaced.

Teams adapt, work around the issues, and keep the wheels turning, even as it becomes obvious that things aren’t on track.

Everyone can feel it coming. No one wants to say it. But the truth is clear: we’re heading for a budget blowout.

Don’t wait until your only move is damage control

By the time it reaches senior leadership, the problem is no longer about delivery – it’s about damage control.

More people are thrown at it. More suppliers are brought in. Oversight is ramped up. And suddenly, the program is no longer about hitting targets – it’s about containing the fallout.

This happens far more often than most people admit.

Around ninety per cent* of major programs run over budget or behind schedule.

And in most cases, the overspend doesn’t come from a sudden shock.

It builds up quietly, early in the life of the program, when confidence is high and key assumptions go unchallenged.

The truth is, strategy gets a lot of attention – but execution is where programs succeed or fail. Most organisations are quick to bring in strategy consultants if they have a strategic gap. That part’s easy.

But when there are clear, known gaps in execution capability – the kind that quietly steer a program off course – the reflex is to work around them, usually by layering in a few contractors or stretching internal teams already under pressure.

It’s a false economy. Because the most expensive part of any program isn’t what happens at the end.

It’s fixing what could have been avoided from the start.

An Independent Program Review – spot faults before reality does it for you

That’s exactly what an Independent Program Review is for.

Not a post-mortem. Not another layer of governance. Just a short, surgical intervention that gives you the truth early – while there’s still time to act.

It’s led by people who’ve delivered complex programs themselves. People who know what good looks like under pressure, and who know how to spot the weak points before they cause real damage.

They read between the lines. They ask the questions no one else is asking. And they help you get ahead of the risks that could derail everything.

This isn’t about blame.

It’s about protecting the investment you’ve already made. Because once a program starts to slide, every recovery effort costs more – in money, momentum, and credibility.

The most expensive problems are the ones you saw too late

So, if you want to avoid a blowout, don’t wait for the alarm bells. Get experienced, independent eyes on the program early – before the pressure becomes impossible to ignore.

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*Evidenced by our research and experience from running more than 130 programs, supported by Bent Flyvbjerg’s extensive research in his book “How Big Things Get Done”, published 2023.

 

About the author

David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.

You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.