Slow-Motion Disasters: Why Big Programs Fail and How to Stop It
Lessons from ESN and Beyond
Programs like the Emergency Services Network (ESN) do not fail overnight. They unravel in slow motion.
Budget overruns creep up, deadlines quietly slip, and accountability dissolves piece by piece.
What starts as a bold vision devolves into a long, drawn-out saga of missed opportunities and mounting costs.
ESN is a textbook case – a public-sector omnishambles – billions overspent, years behind schedule, and nowhere near completion.
James Titcomb’s article (in which I’m quoted) in today’s Daily Telegraph is yet another expose of this debacle.
And, it’s not unique. For every ESN, countless private-sector projects suffer the same slow, painful decline.
The difference? Most of those disasters happen behind closed doors – hidden from the public eye.
The Slow Reveal of Failure
When programs fail, it’s never one big moment. It’s always a series of minor errors in judgement – repeated every day – that snowball into catastrophe:
· Governance meetings that raise the same issues – but result in no action.
· Budgets quietly doubling as “unforeseen costs” pile up.
· Timelines slipping in increments – until the original deadline is ancient history.
· Leadership changes that leave no one accountable for outcomes.
So, this is how ESN unravelled.
The program started with an ambitious goal: to replace outdated emergency communication systems with a cutting-edge 4G network.
But from the start, cracks appeared. The 4G technology it relied on was not fully developed. The plan was to “intercept” new features as they became available – a risky strategy that required flawless execution and strong management.
Instead, ESN got neither.
Governance bodies flagged issues but lacked the authority (and still do) to enforce solutions. Leaders were cycled in and out of the program, and no one stayed long enough to take real ownership.
Costs spiralled to more than £10 billion, and deadlines stretched from 2019 to 2030 – or beyond.
Sound familiar?
It should. These are the same warning signs we see in failing programs everywhere.
The Grand Transformation That Fizzled Out
ESN may be a public-sector disaster, but the private sector has its own creeping disasters too.
Think of the grand transformation program that started with high hopes, sweeping press releases, and a promise to revolutionise and streamline the organisation.
It lasted just long enough to churn through three transformation directors in as many years, each with a different vision, before fizzling out completely.
After years of effort, endless strategy sessions, and millions of pounds spent, the program quietly disappeared – leaving the company no better off than when it started.
The cause?
The same unfolding trainwreck: weak governance, shifting accountability, and leadership turnover that derailed any chance of progress.
The True Cost of Slow-Motion Failure
The consequences of these failures are staggering.
For ESN, emergency responders are left relying on outdated systems that slow them down and, in some cases, put lives at risk.
Taxpayers are footing the bill for a program that has more than doubled its original cost – with no clear end in sight.
In both the public and private sectors, true program costs are usually buried in overhead. But in the private sector, these hidden costs don’t just mislead – they show up as wasted resources, missed revenue opportunities, and a big hit to employee morale.
But perhaps the biggest cost is trust.
When big programs fail, confidence in leadership erodes – not just among employees but also among investors and customers.
And the biggest tragedy? These failures are often preventable.
Why Programs Fail in Slow Motion
The causes of these disasters are depressingly consistent:
· Governance Without Power
Oversight bodies flag issues but cannot enforce decisions.
· Vanishing Accountability: Leadership changes leave no one responsible for outcomes.
· Excuses Over Action: Problems are “explained away” rather than addressed head-on.
· Unrealistic Planning: Programs are built on fragile assumptions, like relying on immature technology.
· Lack of Proven Management Capability: Complex programs are handed to leaders – without the experience or track record – to navigate the challenges.
This is not just a public-sector problem. These same issues plague private organisations everywhere.
Breaking the Cycle
It does not have to be this way. To stop programs from a lingering collapse, organisations need to take bold, deliberate action:
· Empower Governance
Oversight must come with real authority to enforce solutions. Without teeth, governance is just a meaningless ritual.
· Sustain Accountability
Leaders must “own” their programs from start to finish. No more disappearing acts.
· Bring in Proven Capability
Complex programs require experienced leaders who have successfully delivered in similar situations. This is never the time for on-the-job learning.
· Demand Transparency
Failures should be acknowledged and confronted in real time, not swept under the rug. Transparency forces accountability and drives change.
· Adjust Quickly
Don’t cling to flawed plans. If something is not working, pivot early before multiple small issues grow into major failures.
The Programs You’re Thinking About Right Now
The truth is, everyone reading this article has seen a snail-paced calamity unfold.
It’s not just ESN. It’s the IT system that never launched, the “game-changing” product that quietly disappeared, or the grand transformation program that churned through multiple leaders before quietly fading away.
These programs don’t fail suddenly. They fail through a thousand small decisions – to avoid hard truths, ignore warning signs, and hope that problems will somehow resolve themselves.
So, here’s the question.
Are you ready to confront the hard truths about the programs you are running today? Or will you let them drift into the same endless grind as the disasters you have seen before?
The answers are not hidden – they’re staring you in the face: leadership, governance, accountability, and proven expertise.
What’s missing is NOT knowledge; it’s action.
The time to wake up is today, not after the post-mortem. Because by then, it’s already too late.
About the author
David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.
You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.