“It won’t happen to us”

Some believe the earth is flat. In fact, Darryl Marble, a leading “flat earther,” has over 52,000 YouTube subscribers.

And about 10% of Americans—over 33 million people—think the moon landings were faked. Despite all the scientific evidence, people choose to believe in unsubstantiated, half-baked theories.

And most of us dismiss these instantly, thinking: Those beliefs are for the fringes.

Yet what if these beliefs also silently reside in our own decisions, hiding in plain sight?

In strategy execution, denial tends to show up in more subtle ways. Over the last 30 years, I’ve seen it countless times, disguised as optimism.

“It won’t happen to us,” they say. But the data tells a different story.

Programs that are business-critical rarely follow the original plan without hiccups. What’s fascinating is that 118 of the 132 programs we’ve worked on—over 90%—required rescuing because of misplaced assumptions, leading to costly delays.

When we look at major projects globally, the research of Professor Bent Flyvbjerg* from Oxford University shows that 92% of major programs come in over budget, behind schedule, or both.

Why does this happen? Blind spots. Biases. They prevent even the best teams from seeing the full picture until it’s too late.

And once you’re behind, it’s far more challenging to catch up.

The question then becomes: Wouldn’t it be sensible to consider what might happen if just one critical program element is overlooked?”

“We’re Perfectly Aligned”

Senior leaders often tell me they are confident their teams are on the same page. The CEO believes in the strategy, and so does the executive team.

Yet, there’s a curious pattern we see over and over: a massive gap between those setting the goals and those responsible for carrying them out.

You might be thinking: “Surely if there were a problem, someone would have raised it by now.”

Often, senior leaders believe that frequent communication guarantees alignment. But, when we ask those actually delivering the program, we tend to hear a very different story.

What they’re really thinking is, “We weren’t consulted about the timeline. The plan doesn’t work for us.”

Or worse, they feel unable to push back, knowing their feedback won’t be well received by management.

The disconnect can be subtle at first—so subtle, in fact, that you might not notice it. But by the time you do, the damage is already done.

What if the alignment you think exists is just a consensual illusion?

“Our Team Can Handle This”

On the surface, managing a program might seem straightforward – just another program with clear goals, timelines, and resources.

Yet, imagine a conductor trying to lead an orchestra without hearing the full range of instruments – missing a note here, a beat there.

Could it be that your team’s true potential is getting lost in the noise?

Each section of the orchestra must move in harmony, and without an expert “conductor,” the entire thing falls apart.

Often, the program director is simply someone handed the reins because of their “availability” rather than expertise. And the team? Usually, a patchwork of people who were also mostly “available.”

Here’s what tends to happen: milestones are missed. The CEO receives reassurance from the program team: “Nothing to worry about. Just a temporary issue.” They trust their team, believing that solutions are underway.

But when those solutions don’t materialise, and six months pass with no real progress. Eventually, it becomes clear—denial has set in. The team doesn’t know how to fix the issues, and they’ve been in over their heads from the beginning.

When the CEO finally called me, he said something I’ve heard too many times before: “We completely underestimated the complexity of this program. We assumed we could manage it internally.”

What if the real challenge isn’t managing the program – but realising that even our best intentions can sometimes lead us off course?

And as you reflect on your team’s performance, isn’t it reassuring to know there’s a way to see the full picture without the distortions of bias?

“We Have Strong Governance”

Why do so many senior leaders let these situations drag on?

One reason is simple: they’re too removed from the day-to-day. Instead, they rely on the program director’s assurances.

But even a competent manager might not admit they’re struggling. Whether it’s pride or fear of appearing weak, it’s human nature to want to solve problems without asking for help. The result? They keep backing themselves, even when the evidence says otherwise.

Without strong governance, programs deteriorate, sometimes irreparably. Poor governance creates blind spots and fosters complacency. And by the time you finally recognise the depth of the problem, it’s often too late. Good governance identifies issues early and forces immediate course correction.

It’s easy to assume that if no alarms have been raised, everything is on track.

But ask yourself: How much do you really know about what’s happening beneath the surface of your program?

“We Don’t Need External Help”

Many companies think they can fix governance and execution issues internally. But blind spots and biases mean it’s often impossible to get a clear view – without outside expertise.

That’s where Mentor’s Independent Program Review (IPR) comes in—offering an objective, proactive approach to makes sure your programs succeed.

The Moment of Decision

If you decide to take a postitive approach, call me now on 0118 359 2444 to arrange a conversation or email me at david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com. It’s easier than you might think.

Some execs put critical decisions like this to one side, allowing other distractions to pull them away from what matters most. Others may take a few days to think things over. And some act immediately…

Which group do you belong to?

Either way, you get to decide. And knowing that, doesn’t it make sense to consider what’s truly at stake here?

With your strong track record of making smart decisions, doesn’t it make sense to take proactive steps now to strengthen the success stories you’re known for?

Here’s what you can do next: Arrange an Independent Program Review (IPR) today. This will set you on the path to clarity and success.

You Can Still Beat the Odds

By starting this process, you not only safeguard your program – but also position yourself as a leader who really “grasps the nettle.” It’s well known that the harder you grasp a nettle, the less it stings.

Picture the moment when your colleagues look to you, not just with respect, but with admiration for the foresight and clarity you brought to steer this program to success.

You can choose to move forward with confidence. The IPR will provide you with the insights needed to steer your program away from potential pitfalls.

So, how much longer will you wait?

*Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner in their book “How Big Things Get Done”. Published 2023. Random House publications.

About the author

David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.

You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.