It’s not unusual for a major program to trundle on for years with its dashboard politely set at amber.

Not every activity, of course – some show green – but the overall picture never shifts. Always amber.

The message to executives is soothing: there are challenges, yes, but nothing unmanageable.

Tough – but achievable is the predictable refrain, delivered with the confidence of someone who has rehearsed it many times.

Seasoned practitioners can keep this line going for years, without the slightest flicker of embarrassment. You probably have a few of your own favourites.

Yet reality often tells a different story. Programs can be holed below the waterline almost from the start, while amber keeps leaders nodding along, reassured. By the time the truth breaks through, recovery is usually impossible.

Hope Dressed Up as a Metric

KPIs are rarely born in the hard graft of delivery. They are minted in boardrooms, designed to satisfy strategic ambition, market expectations, or the appetite of analysts.

On slides, they shine:

· 20% savings by Q4

· 50% adoption in year one

· 90% satisfaction in six months.

The numbers look impressive – tidy, confident, optimistic.

Delivery teams, though, see them differently. They know the missing resources, the unresolved dependencies, the sheer grind that lies ahead. Their warnings are rarely sought.

The result is performance theatre: bold numbers at the top of the house, quietly disconnected from the bottom.

Ambiguity by Design

Even when KPIs are set, they are often maddeningly vague.

Improve customer experience. But how — NPS, churn, fewer complaints?

Achieve financial benefits. Which ones, and when, under what accounting rules?

Deliver technology upgrade. Installed? Adopted? Or actually delivering value?

This vagueness is not accidental. It allows good news to be trumpeted and bad news to be softened.

Amber becomes the refuge. Not perfect, but “under control.” Not success, not failure, but the safe middle ground. The refrain repeats: tough but achievable.

The Illusion of Control

Status meetings should be where ambition collides with reality. Too often, they are ritual.

Slides appear. KPIs are displayed. Executives nod gravely as the traffic lights flicker.

Green is celebrated. Red is avoided at all costs.

So amber becomes the fig leaf of failure – a polite way of saying, “things aren’t right, but don’t worry.”

Amber buys time. It protects careers. But it doesn’t fix problems.

And reality is unforgiving: nine out of ten major programs still miss plan. By the time red is admitted, the damage is done.

Trailing Indicators

Even the “hard” KPIs are often little more than a rear-view mirror.

Revenue growth. Customer churn. Delivery milestones.

All lagging indicators.

They tell you what has happened, not what’s about to.

By the time they show trouble, the trouble is already here.

Meanwhile, teams massage the story, buying time in the hope of a turnaround before the next review. Control looks intact. In truth, it isn’t.

Breaking the Illusion

The answer is not to abandon metrics but to demand stronger ones – and governance with the courage to use them properly.

1. Forward-Looking KPIs

Executives need measures that predict, not just report:

Are the right people in place for the next phase?

Have critical dependencies been cleared, with owners and dates?

How quickly are escalations resolved?

Is the testing pipeline ready, not just reported?

2. Precision and Ownership

Every KPI should have:

·  A clear definition

·  A single accountable owner

·  A delivery date that can’t slip quietly.

If nobody owns it, it isn’t credible.

3. Executives Asking Awkward Questions

KPIs should be tested, not just received.

What assumptions sit behind this number?

What specifically would tip this amber into red?

Who is personally accountable?

4. Independent Program Reviews

Self-reporting always flatters. Independent reviews don’t. They cut through bias and reveal what’s real, what’s shaky, and what’s missing.

Far from indulgence, they are oxygen for governance.

Breaking Free of Amber

Programs rarely collapse in a single moment. More often, they drift – quietly, over years – while dashboards stay amber.

The lesson is clear: KPIs can lull leaders into complacency while risks multiply unseen.

Hope is not a strategy.

And amber is the greatest con trick in program management: not green enough to succeed, not red enough to alarm – just the perfect shade of fudge.

It is what allows program teams to pull the wool over investors’ eyes, sometimes for years.

Sound familiar? If so, call me on 07860 222282 or message me on LinkedIn. Let’s chat.

About the author

David Hilliard is founder of Mentor, specialists in strategic program execution.

You can call him on 0118 359 2444 or email david.hilliard@mentoreurope.com.